Monday, August 15, 2011

2012 Political Predictions

Rick Perry wins easily in the Iowa caucus. Then he scores a narrow victory in the New Hampshire primary. This effectively ends the GOP primary and Governor Perry is the GOP nominee.

Perry chooses Governor Nikki Haley as his running mate.

Obama wins the general election with 52% of the votes.

Democrats gain seats but Republicans remain the majority in the House.

Republicans gain a narrow majority in the Senate.


  1. I can follow the Rick Perry prediction. He's got strong Bush background and connections, and we all know that the Republicans really want a taste of that again. All the other Republican candidates have drawbacks that are going to hurt them more and more vs. Perry.

    I don't see them going to Nikki Haley as VP though. Simply choosing a female would remind people too much of Palin. I could easily see them going for an 'ethnic' choice, though, like Bobby Jindal. They want a brown person on the Republican ticket to confuse other brown people about who to vote for.

    Yeah, sure, it's going to be a close race. Obama's re-election hinges largely on the state of the economy in mid-to-late 2012. I don't think any other variables matter as much as that.

    -Matt H.

  2. 2 Party system. One party will insist on nominating another candidate who says that his decisions are made based on an old man in the sky. So even if I wanted to vote Republican, I almost certainly never will. Atheists and agnostics continue to be the most under-represented minority in this country. At least gay people have 3 elected Congress people working on their behalf (and a whole lot of straight Congressmen besides).

  3. Also, what about Marco Rubio? I mean, assuming that his record stays clean between now and VP choosing time, I don't see how the Republicans would pass him up. Charismatic, young, from a far more important state than Haley, and it "proves" that the Republicans can go the non-white-person route (you know, like they did with Michael Steele - LOLZ).

  4. @Matt: Bobby Jindal hasn't been a serious Prez or V Prez option since he blew his wad responding to Obama's joint address to Congress in 2009. He's a limp noodle. Sure, he came off pretty well while he was stirring up shit on behalf of his state during the BP spill, but he's not good VP material. The Republicans need someone with a bit more hutzpah than Jindal, and they have other "ethnic" ways to go that are better suited to serve has complimentary foils to their likely Prez candidates.

  5. Haley is a wild guess. And another attractive, first-term woman Governor would remind people of Palin. But with Perry locking down the right flank they will be looking to reach out to the non-whites and women while still staying conservative and anti-Washington.

    I'll stick with Haley.